Esports betting has exploded in popularity over the last few years. With so many matches, tournaments, and betting options now available, the betting odds can seem overwhelming, especially if you’re new to esports wagering. But having a solid understanding of how to read esports odds can set you on the path to becoming a profitable bettor.
These pro tips will teach you to dissect the numbers and make better bets whether you’re wagering on Dota 2, League of Legends, CS or any other popular title.
Compare Odds from Multiple Books
The first key step is to compare the odds offered at Bet 442. Odds and lines can vary significantly from one book to the next, even on the exact same match.
Shopping the odds allows you to find and take advantage of discrepancies to get the best price on your chosen wager. Over time, grabbing an extra half-point here or there makes a big difference to your bottom line.
We’ll use a hypothetical Dota 2 match between Team Liquid and Evil Geniuses in the ESL One tournament as an example:
| Sportsbook | Team Liquid Odds | Evil Geniuses Odds |
| Bovada | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline | -115 | +105 |
| MyBookie | -118 | +104 |
As you can see, Bovada offers slightly longer odds on both sides of this match. So a bettor here could gain an edge over those betting at the other two sites.
Over a full season, shopping for the best line on each match you bet adds up. It takes a bit more work, but it’s worth it.
Understand Esports Odds Formats
There are a few common formats used to display odds in esports:
- Moneyline – Listed as a negative or positive number (e.g. -120 or +100). The number indicates how much you need to bet to win $100.
- Decimal – Displayed as a decimal like 1.20 or 2.00. This is the payout on a $1 wager.
- Fraction – Listed like 6/5, 2/1, etc. This is the ratio of the amount won to the stake.
Fractional odds are rarely used for esports. But you may encounter both moneyline and decimal odds depending on the sportsbooks you bet at.
Make sure you understand which format is being used before placing any wagers. All formats tell you the same thing (favorite vs underdog and payouts). But mixing them up when making bets can cause confusion.
Here’s an example to illustrate the differences:
| Format | Team Liquid | Evil Geniuses |
| Moneyline | -115 | +105 |
| Decimal | 1.87 | 2.05 |
| Fraction | 20/23 | 21/20 |
No matter the format, Team Liquid is favored at odds that imply a 54% chance of victory. Evil Geniuses is the underdog at odds equating to approximately a 49% win probability.
Calculate Implied Probabilities
More advanced bettors take odds analysis a step further by calculating implied probabilities. This shows what chance of victory the listed odds suggest for each team or outcome.
Figuring implied probability helps you determine when teams, players or match markets may be over/undervalued by the oddsmakers. Spotting these inefficiencies is key for turning a long-term profit.
Let’s go back to our Dota 2 match:
- Team Liquid = -115
- Evil Geniuses = +105
To calculate implied probability, you first add 100 to the positive moneyline odds or subtract 100 from the negative moneyline odds:
- Team Liquid = -115 + 100 = -15
- Evil Geniuses = +105 – 100 = +5
Next, divide 1 by that adjusted number to get the percentage:
- Team Liquid = 1 / -15 = 0.5333 or 53.33%
- Evil Geniuses = 1 / 5 = 0.2 or 20%
So the oddsmakers give Liquid a 53.33% chance to win. Evil Geniuses have an implied win probability of 20%.
If your own evaluations disagree with these probabilities, you have a great betting opportunity!
Study Recent Form and Styles
The odds also account for teams’ and players’ recent performances and play styles. So doing your betting homework gives you further insight into the implied probabilities.
For example, Team Liquid may be on a hot streak, playing cohesively and winning tournaments. Whereas, Evil Geniuses are slumping a bit and struggling with their drafts.
The oddsmakers have to price and balance the match odds accordingly based on current form and any matchup advantages or deficiencies.
Make sure to follow the latest results, team changes, meta trends, and map records. This will allow you to detect when the sportsbooks haven’t quite caught up to a squad’s rising or declining fortunes.
Don’t Ignore Live Betting Odds
Watching matches in real-time also presents profitable betting opportunities. Sportsbooks dynamically adjust the live betting odds as a matchup progresses.
But sometimes the line moves too drastically or doesn’t quite reflect the current game state accurately. In those cases, you can really clean up by pouncing before the books adjust.
For a basic example, Team Liquid may destroy Evil Geniuses in game 1 of a best-of-three series. Liquid’s odds decrease as a result, while EG’s odds drift longer since they now face elimination.
But what if Evil Geniuses lost that first map because of the draft or unfavorable meta, not because Liquid is vastly superior. The odds shift too far in Liquid’s favor based on perception.
EG then takes game 2 comfortably with a much better draft. Yet now they look undervalued going into the deciding game 3…where their better odds provide great betting value on the comeback win.
Develop Your Own Odds Models
Pros take their analysis to an even higher level by creating their own quantitative models to generate fair odds and probabilities.
Building models requires an advanced stats background and lots of historical match data. But doing so enables you to uncover the biggest mismatches between your projected odds vs the sportsbooks’ odds.
Let’s say your model makes Team Liquid a 68% favorite over Evil Geniuses for their upcoming match. However, the oddsmakers list Liquid as just a -120 favorite (implied 55% chance).
Here are a few of the key factors to consider when making customized predictive esports models:
- Recent head-to-head record
- Performance vs strength of schedule
- Variance/consistency metrics
- Historical map records
- Hero/champion stats
- Team compositions/archetypes
- Pressure performance
Continuously test, tweak and optimize your modeling over time. The more accurate your projections, the better your betting returns will be over the long run.
Learning to make sense of esports betting odds is an indispensable skill if you want to beat the books. While it takes some upfront work, the payoff is well worth it.
Sharpen your understanding of odds formats, implied probability, and efficient market principles. Stay on top of current forms and trends around teams, players, maps, meta and more.